Fusion Centers Neg #BlackLivesMatter Neg at: Movements Advantage

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*** Fusion Centers Neg

#BlackLivesMatter Neg

AT: Movements Advantage

Movements Wont Grow – Social Media

Limitations of Social Media Will Prevent Large Scale Attention to the Movement

Morozov 13 [Morozov, Evgeny. “Why Social Movements Should Ignore Social Media.” 2/5/13. http://www.newrepublic.com/article/112189/social-media-doesnt-always-help-social-movements]

If one assumes that political reform is long, slow, and painful, hierarchies and centralizing strategies can be productive. After all, they can keep the movement on target and give it some coherent shape. Ideas on their own do not change the world; ideas that are coupled with smart institutions might. “Not by memes alone” would be an apt slogan for any contemporary social movement. Alas, this basic insight—that political reform cannot be reduced to the wars of memes and aesthetics alone, even if the Internet offers an effective platform for waging them—has mostly been lost on the Occupy Wall Street crowd.9 Challenging power requires a strategy that in many circumstances might favor centralization. To reject the latter on philosophical grounds rather than strategic grounds—because it is anti-Internet or anti-Wikipedia—borders on the suicidal.

Movements Wont Grow – Public Support

The public does not support protest movements

Herrnson and Weldon ’14 [Paul and Cathleen respectively, Herrnson is an Expert in American politics, Executive Director of the Roper Center, and a Professor of Political Science at the University of Connecticut, Kathleen is a Research Coordinator for the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at UConn, “Going Too Far: The American Public's Attitudes Toward Protest Movements”, October 22, 2014]

Few generalizations can be made about the public's support for protest movements in general; level of support varies by issue. But perhaps because personal experience with protest is rare -- just 10 percent said they had ever participated in a protest in a 2013 AP/Gfk Knowledge Networks poll -- the public's overall attitude toward mass demonstrations seems to range from skepticism to outright condemnation. Even the most popular protest events have support levels that hover below half, and positive responses are rarely higher than negative ones. The public is particularly uncomfortable with protest during wartime. The flip side of the "rally-round-the-flag" effect, which unites Americans in opposition to an external threat, is less tolerance for internal dissent. Thirty-one percent in a 2003 Freedom Forum/American Journalism Review poll believed that individuals should not be allowed to protest during a time of active military combat. Similarly, 34 percent in a 1991 LA Times poll thought that protests against the Gulf War were inappropriate once forces were in combat. In a 1970 Harris poll, 37 percent said antiwar protests should be made illegal. However, Americans can be quite supportive of protests on other shores, particularly in countries where the government is seen as particularly repressive. In a 1979 Carnegie Endowment for Peace/Response Analysis poll, 79 percent said they thought blacks in South Africa were justified in conducting boycotts, sit-ins, and demonstrations in order to improve their situation. A 1989 Harris poll found nine in ten thought the students in Tiananmen Square were right in their demands. Eighty-two percent in a 2011 Gallup poll said they were sympathetic to those protesting for a change of government in Egypt. Despite the demonstrable successes of the Civil Rights movement only a decade before, 1976 Gallup poll found that the public was skeptical that protests could bring about change. Just 6% thought protests were very effective in influencing how our government is run and what laws are passed, and 22 percent thought they were fairly effective. But the public's perception of whether a particular protest is likely to help the cause it champions varies considerably by attitudes toward the issue overall. During the civil rights movement, blacks thought demonstrations helped the cause, while whites thought they hurt it. Only 29 percent of the public in a 2003 Gallup poll said they agreed with the views of those protesting the Iraq War, so it is unsurprising that very few (5 percent) said the protests made them more sympathetic. On the other hand, over a third of the public said the 2009 town hall meeting protests against the controversial health care bill made them more sympathetic to the protestors' views.

Protests Don’t Work

Non-violent protests are ineffective and enacting real change

Carrington No Date [Chris Carrington is a PhD student in the Security, Peace and Conflict subfield interested in civil and ethnic conflict and combined statistical and qualitative methods. After completing his undergrad in political science and history at the University of Notre Dame, he took a year to explore other career options before deciding on the academy, “When Nonviolent Resistance Fails: The Strategic Logic of Insurrection for SelfDetermination Movements,” No Date.]

Self-determination movements will have trouble expanding their simple revolutionary potential beyond their particular social segments because their nationalist, and therefore almost necessarily ethnic, attributes make them vulnerable to a host of problems that the literature associates with ethnic conflicts. General ethnic antipathy tops the list. Making a comparison to other nonviolent movements, Zunes writes, “More problematic are the cases of suppressed ethnic minorities, who would have particular difficulty winning the support of majority sectors against government repression thanks to widespread popular prejudice.”46 This point is important: the central population—the group of nonmembers of the independence-seeking group—is unlikely to support an independence movement, even in private, simply due to prejudice. The possibilities of conflicting nationalist myths or economic interests reduce the probability of central support still further—and one would expect at least the latter in such conflicts, if not the former as well. Even if some members of the central population did support the independence movement, the material and social risks of action47 and lack of direct personal benefit would prevent most of those people from acting on their beliefs. Ethnic antipathies and national interests thus preclude the expansion of revolutionary potential48 to the central population, rendering nonviolent tactics an ineffective option. In addition to remaining socially restricted, independence movements will be unlikely to achieve much success in converting regime elements. When an ethnic group is excluded from power, both government institutions and the military may be dominated by rival ethnic groups.49 This exclusion combined with ethnic prejudices will make conversions extremely difficult. Furthermore, openings in the political opportunity space that some scholars associate with nonviolent political change50 will not be forthcoming in an exclusionary context. Finally, the regime may be able to use harsh repression with less fear of wider backlash; if the central population views the movement or its constituents with prejudice, as illegitimate, or as inimical to its interests, it may not censure a harsh regime crackdown. The central population may even support government repression against an ethnic population if it fears unrest amongst or increased power for that group.51 Security forces and decision-makers will also be more willing to use harsh repression measures if they suffer from prejudices. Because of their ethnic character, self-determination movements not only have low revolutionary potential, but the conversion mechanism by which nonviolent resistance operates will be unlikely to function for them.
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